Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth Market Update: December 2026

It is the middle of October, and the story in Texas is steadiness with a slower pulse: mortgage rates are holding at 7.40 percent, Houston's median price is essentially flat from a year ago even as supply sits near record levels, and Dallas-Fort Worth's median is holding firm around $390,000 while homes take longer to sell. Here is the latest monthly update for both markets, with every figure dated and its source named so you can check my work.

Houston: near-record supply, steady prices

The Houston Association of Realtors released its September 2026 monthly housing update on October 14, headlined "Houston Homebuying Activity Eases in September as Mortgage Rates Rise." The median single-family sale price came in at $325,000, essentially flat from $325,990 a year earlier, while the average price rose 0.7 percent to $421,311. Single-family sales totaled 7,030 for the month, down 5.7 percent year over year. Across all property types, sales ran 8,181, down 6.4 percent, on $3.45 billion in dollar volume, down 2.1 percent. Active single-family listings climbed 6.3 percent to 40,192, a near-record supply, holding months of inventory at 5.5, up from 5.1 a year earlier. Pending listings, homes under contract but not yet closed, declined 11.6 percent to 6,789, which HAR said suggests "some buyers are taking more time before committing to a purchase." Homes took an average 58 days to sell, up from 56 a year ago, and HAR framed the market as balanced with prices steady as buyers navigate elevated mortgage rates.

DFW: firm median, slower pace

For Dallas-Fort Worth, the most current verified MLS figures still cover August closings. MetroTex reported 7,329 single-family homes sold in August, down about 5 percent year over year, at a median sale price of $390,000, essentially flat year over year, with dollar volume around $3.73 billion. Active single-family listings stood at 31,072, down 6 percent, with 4.3 months of inventory, and an NTREIS-sourced broker update puts supply at 4.4 months with active listings down 5.7 percent. Homes.com's report, updated September 25 on August data, runs the single-family median higher at $399,000, down 0.2 percent year over year, with a median 66 days on market versus 59 nationally and roughly 36,028 active listings across the metro, among the most of any U.S. metro. New construction is doing the heavy lifting on supply: Scribner DFW's September market brief, published October 12, counted 26,672 resale active listings, down 6.7 percent year over year, and 9,025 new-construction active listings, down 7.8 percent. The sources measure differently, but the direction is the same: DFW prices are holding near their highs while homes sit longer and buyers gain negotiating room.

Mortgage rates: holding at 7.4 percent

Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey averaged 7.40 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the week ending October 15, 2026, unchanged from the prior week and up from 7.28 percent two weeks earlier. The 15-year fixed-rate loan averaged 6.71 percent that same week. A year earlier the 30-year survey averaged about 6.30 percent, so today's borrower is financing roughly 110 basis points more than this time last October. Rates climbed steadily through September and have now held above 7.4 percent for two straight weeks, and that pressure is a big part of why both markets feel slower.

What this means for buyers and sellers

For buyers, mid-October is still a good month to be looking. Houston has near-record supply with a median essentially flat from a year ago, DFW is holding value while marketing times stretch, and sellers in both markets are more willing to talk terms. Ask for closing-cost help and rate buydowns, and plan around a 7.4 percent rate being today's reality, not a reason to wait. For sellers, the market rewards honest pricing. Houston's median is essentially flat from a year ago, DFW is roughly flat to up slightly depending on the source, and the homes moving first are priced against today's comparable sales, not last year's. A defensible list price, sharp presentation, and a willingness to negotiate beat a price cut later.

The bottom line

Neither market is breaking; both are settling into a more balanced rhythm after an extraordinary run. Houston has near-record supply with prices essentially flat, DFW is holding value while slowing down, and rates above 7.4 percent are the biggest wildcard heading into the holidays. If you want to know what these numbers mean for your specific address, Sharcom Realty Group works Houston, Katy, and DFW every day. We will pull the current comparable sales for your neighborhood and give you a straight answer, no charge and no pressure.

Sources: Houston Association of Realtors, September 2026 Monthly Housing Update, released October 14, 2026 (headline and commentary via Houston Agent Magazine, October 15, 2026); MetroTex, DFW Home Sales Cool Heading Into Fall 2026, NTREIS data through August 2026 closings; The Dunnican Team, DFW Metroplex Housing Market Update, NTREIS data through August 2026; Homes.com, Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Report, updated September 25, 2026; Scribner DFW, DFW Market Brief, September 2026, published October 12, 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 15, 2026.