Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth Market Update: February 2027

It is the last week of October, and Texas buyers finally got the reprieve they have been waiting months for: mortgage rates fell for a second straight week, the first sustained break in the climb since August. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.24 percent for the week ending October 29, per Freddie Mac, down from the 7.40 percent high hit in mid-October. Houston enters November with near-record supply and a median price essentially flat from a year ago, Dallas-Fort Worth's freshest official data runs about 1 percent below last year, and buyers in both markets hold the leverage. Here is the latest monthly update, with every figure dated and its source named so you can check my work.

Houston: more homes than ever, prices holding

The Houston Association of Realtors' September 2026 housing update, released October 14, put the median single-family sale price at $325,000, essentially unchanged from $325,990 a year earlier, with the average sale price up 0.7 percent to $421,311. Single-family sales totaled 7,030 for the month, down 5.7 percent year over year. Active single-family listings climbed 6.3 percent to 40,192 homes, near a record for the region, and homes took an average of 55 days to sell, up from 52 a year ago, per broker analyses of the HAR data from K&G Capital Mortgage and Bexley Realty Group. Texas REALTORS' Q3 2026 metro report, released October 20, ran Houston's median down 1.2 percent year over year, with months of inventory statewide at 5.5, up from 5.4. The balance has tilted hard toward buyers: Redfin ranks Houston among the strongest buyer's markets in the country, with sellers outnumbering buyers by nearly 130 percent in its July reading and roughly 3 in 5 area sales including a seller concession, a record share. The Houston Chronicle framed it well in late October: the region has never had more homes for sale, and buyers are still not finding big bargains. More supply is choosing for buyers; it is not yet breaking prices.

DFW: a buyer's market with a softer median

The freshest official read for Dallas-Fort Worth is the NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report for September 2026, prepared by the Texas Real Estate Research Center and dated October 7. It put the metro median single-family sale price at $385,000, down about 1 percent from a year earlier, with 4.3 months of inventory and closed sales down roughly 7 percent. Texas REALTORS' Q3 report ran the DFW-Arlington median at $385,535, down 1.1 percent year over year, narrowly edged out by Midland's $386,000 for the highest Q3 median among Texas metros, a distinction The Real Deal flagged on October 27. Redfin's rankings put Dallas and Fort Worth among the nation's strongest buyer's markets: Dallas sellers outnumbered buyers by 99 percent in July, Fort Worth by 86 percent in August, and 53.3 percent of Dallas-area sales included a seller concession in August, up 6.5 points from a year earlier.

Mortgage rates: two weeks of relief

Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey averaged 7.24 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the week ending October 29, 2026, down from 7.32 percent the week before and from the 7.40 percent October high, the first back-to-back weekly decline since August, a turn Freddie Mac's own release headlined 'Mortgage Rates Decline Further to 7.24 Percent.' The 15-year fixed-rate loan averaged 6.60 percent. A year earlier the same survey averaged 6.17 percent for the week ending October 29, 2025, so today's borrower is still financing roughly 107 basis points more than this time last year. The Texas Real Estate Research Center cautioned in its October 23 Housing Insight that rates above 7 percent will likely keep restraining activity through year-end, and the NAHB's October builder confidence reading hit a 14-year low with 43 percent of builders reporting price cuts. The relief is welcome; it is not yet a pivot.

Builders are still setting the terms

New construction continues to define the market in both metros. HousingWire reports that about 70 percent of DFW new-home sales include rate buydowns or structured incentives that effectively put buyers near 5.5 percent, and Realtor.com ranked Dallas-Fort Worth among its top 25 U.S. new-construction metros on October 16. Builder Online's October 27 DFW snapshot shows demand shifting up-market: homes under $400,000 fell from 61 percent of new-home sales in early 2018 to 48 percent today, while the higher tiers gained share. Houston builders are running the same playbook: brokerages tracking the Katy, Fulshear, Brookshire, and Cypress corridors report rate buydowns through builder-affiliated lenders, closing-cost assistance, and design upgrades, with some HAR-tracked builder offers as low as 4.99 to 5.50 percent fixed plus credits of $10,000 or more. For resale sellers, the competition is a builder who can buy down a buyer's rate out of its own margin.

What this means for buyers and sellers

For buyers, this is still a strong window. Houston has near-record supply with a median essentially flat from a year ago, DFW's official data is off about 1 percent, and sellers in both metros are offering concessions at near-record rates. Ask for closing-cost help, ask about rate buydowns, and budget around a 7.2 percent rate being today's reality rather than a reason to wait. For sellers, the market keeps rewarding honest pricing. Houston's median is flat, DFW's is down about 1 percent on the NTREIS data, and the homes moving first are priced against today's comparable sales, not last year's. A defensible list price, sharp presentation, and a willingness to negotiate beat a price cut later.

The bottom line

Neither market is breaking; both are settling deeper into a buyer-favoring balance after an extraordinary run, and the notable shift this week is rates moving lower for the second week in a row. Houston has near-record supply and steady prices, DFW is a touch softer on the freshest official numbers, and builders remain the toughest competition most sellers will face. If you want to know what these numbers mean for your specific address, Sharcom Realty Group works Houston, Katy, and DFW every day. We will pull the current comparable sales for your neighborhood and give you a straight answer, no charge and no pressure.

Sources: Houston Association of Realtors, September 2026 Monthly Housing Update, released October 14, 2026; K&G Capital Mortgage, Houston and Montgomery County Housing Market, September 2026; Bexley Realty Group, Houston housing analysis, October 23, 2026; Texas REALTORS, 2026 Q3 Texas Quarterly Housing Report, released October 20, 2026; NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report for September 2026, prepared by the Texas Real Estate Research Center, dated October 7, 2026; Texas Real Estate Research Center, Texas Housing Insight, October 2026 edition, published October 23, 2026; Redfin, Texas buyer's market rankings and seller concessions data, July and August 2026; The Real Deal, Texas Q3 median home prices, October 27, 2026; Houston Chronicle, Houston record-supply reporting, October 2026; HousingWire, Dallas-Fort Worth new-home incentives, 2026; Realtor.com, top U.S. new-construction metros, October 16, 2026; Builder Online, Dallas Market Snapshot, October 27, 2026; NAHB/Wells Fargo, Housing Market Index, October 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 29, 2026, and week ending October 29, 2025.