Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth Market Update: January 2027

It is the end of October, and the Texas picture has settled into a steady rhythm: mortgage rates spent the month near their highs before easing this week, Houston keeps serving up near-record supply with prices essentially flat, and Dallas-Fort Worth's median dipped slightly on the freshest official data. Here is the latest monthly update for both markets, with every figure dated and its source named so you can check my work.

Houston: record supply, steady prices

The Houston Association of Realtors released its September 2026 monthly housing update on October 14, headlined 'Houston Homebuying Activity Eases in September as Mortgage Rates Rise.' The median single-family sale price came in at $325,000, essentially flat from $325,990 a year earlier, while the average price rose 0.7 percent to $421,311. Single-family sales totaled 7,030 for the month, down 5.7 percent year over year. Active single-family listings climbed 6.3 percent to 40,192, a near-record supply, holding months of inventory at 5.5, up from 5.1 a year earlier, and homes took an average 58 days to sell, up from 56. Texas REALTORS' Q3 2026 report, released October 20, put Houston's median price down 1.2 percent year over year, in line with that steady-to-slightly-softer tone. The balance of power has shifted: Redfin ranks Houston among the strongest buyer's markets in the country, with roughly 3 in 5 sellers offering concessions and about 1 in 4 area listings carrying a price cut this summer.

DFW: the freshest data shows a modest dip

The freshest official read for Dallas-Fort Worth is the NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report for September 2026, prepared by the Texas Real Estate Research Center and dated October 7. It put the metro median single-family sale price at $385,000, down about 1 percent from a year earlier, with 4.3 months of inventory and closed sales down roughly 7 percent. The Dunnican Team's DFW Metroplex update, also on NTREIS data, runs the September median a touch higher at $389,000, up 0.7 percent year over year, with 7,750 closed sales, down 5.5 percent, and active listings of 34,191, down 5.7 percent. Homes.com's report, current through August closings, shows a single-family median of $399,000, down 0.2 percent year over year, homes spending a median 66 days on market, and roughly 36,028 active listings, among the most of any major U.S. metro. The sources measure differently, but the direction is the same: DFW prices are a little off their peak, buyers have real negotiating room, and supply is being rebuilt largely by new construction.

New construction is setting the terms

New construction is setting the terms in both markets this fall. In DFW, newly built homes made up about 31 percent of metro listings in the first half of 2026, per a Realtor.com analysis cited by Scribner DFW, and roughly 70 percent of new-home sales have carried rate buydowns or other incentives, according to HousingWire. New-construction contract signings rose about 6.4 percent month over month in September even as the median new-home price fell roughly 5.8 percent year over year, a sign builders are trading price for pace rather than holding list. Houston builders are running the same playbook: HAR's own coverage and local brokerages point to national builders like Lennar advertising rate buydowns as low as 4.99 percent in the Katy and Fulshear corridors, with closing-cost credits of $10,000 to $20,000 or more. For resale sellers, that means competing with builders who can buy down a buyer's rate out of their own margin.

Mortgage rates: easing off the October high

Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey averaged 7.32 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the week ending October 22, 2026, down from 7.40 percent a week earlier, with the 15-year fixed-rate loan averaging 6.68 percent. Rates spent September climbing from 6.71 to 7.03 percent, pushed to 7.28 and then 7.40 percent in the first two weeks of October, and have now eased back under that high. A year ago, the same survey averaged 6.19 percent for the week ending October 23, 2025, so today's borrower is financing roughly 1.1 percentage points more than this time last year, and that gap is a big reason both markets feel slower.

What this means for buyers and sellers

For buyers, the end of October is still a strong time to be looking. Houston has near-record supply with a median essentially flat from a year ago, DFW's freshest data shows prices a touch off their peak, and sellers in both markets are more willing to talk terms. Ask for closing-cost help, ask about rate buydowns, and plan around a 7.3 percent rate being today's reality rather than a reason to wait. For sellers, the market rewards honest pricing. Houston's median is essentially flat, DFW's is down about 1 percent on the NTREIS data, and the homes moving first are priced against today's comparable sales, not last year's. A defensible list price, sharp presentation, and a willingness to negotiate beat a price cut later.

The bottom line

Neither market is breaking; both are settling into a more balanced rhythm after an extraordinary run. Houston has near-record supply with prices steady, DFW is a touch softer on the freshest numbers, and rates just below their October high are the biggest wildcard heading into the holidays. If you want to know what these numbers mean for your specific address, Sharcom Realty Group works Houston, Katy, and DFW every day. We will pull the current comparable sales for your neighborhood and give you a straight answer, no charge and no pressure.

Sources: Houston Association of Realtors, September 2026 Monthly Housing Update, released October 14, 2026; Texas REALTORS, 2026 Q3 Texas Quarterly Housing Report, released October 20, 2026; NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report for September 2026, prepared by the Texas Real Estate Research Center, dated October 7, 2026; The Dunnican Team, DFW Metroplex Housing Market Update, September 2026; Homes.com, Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Report, August 2026 closings; Scribner DFW, DFW Market Brief, September 2026; Redfin, Houston concessions and buyer's market data, 2026; Houston Chronicle, Houston record-supply reporting, 2026; HousingWire, Dallas-Fort Worth housing report, 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 22, 2026, and week ending October 23, 2025.