Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth Market Update: March 2027

It is the first week of November, and the relief Texas buyers have been waiting for is now three weeks old: mortgage rates fell for a third straight week, the longest stretch of declines since the summer climb stalled. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.18 percent for the week ending November 5, per Freddie Mac, down from 7.24 percent the week before and from the 7.40 percent October high. Houston enters the holiday season with near-record supply and a median essentially flat from a year ago, Dallas-Fort Worth's freshest official data runs about 1 percent below last year, and pending sales in DFW just hit their lowest weekly reading of 2026. Here is the latest monthly update, with every figure dated and its source named so you can check my work.

Houston: record supply, prices holding

The latest official report from the Houston Association of Realtors covers September sales and was released October 14, 2026, under the headline 'Houston Homebuying Activity Eases in September as Mortgage Rates Rise.' It put the median single-family sale price at $325,000, essentially unchanged from $325,990 a year earlier, with the average sale price up 0.7 percent to $421,311. Active single-family listings climbed 6.3 percent to 40,192 homes, months of inventory reached 5.5, up from 5.1 a year earlier, and homes took an average of 58 days to sell, up from 56. Single-family closings totaled 7,030 for the month, down 5.7 percent year over year. The October report is due in mid-November, so this is the freshest official read we have.

The supply story keeps setting records. Houston carried 40,750 single-family listings in July, the most HAR has ever recorded, and it has now had more active listings than any other major U.S. metro for several straight months. Prices are not breaking: the median has hovered in the $325,000 to $345,000 range for two years. Redfin's August data ranked Houston the No. 3 strongest buyer's market in the country, with roughly 131 percent more sellers than buyers, a record gap for the metro, and 58.5 percent of area sales included a seller concession, the seventh-highest share of the 29 metros it tracks.

DFW: a quiet market with a softer median

The freshest official read for Dallas-Fort Worth is the NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report for September 2026, prepared by the Texas Real Estate Research Center and dated October 7. It put the metro median single-family sale price at $385,000, down about 1 percent from a year earlier, with 4.3 months of inventory and closed sales down roughly 7 percent. The October report had not been published as of this writing.

On the ground, the market has gone very quiet. Weekly NTREIS data tracked by Yang Tan Realty shows DFW pending sales fell to 902 in Week 44 of 2026, the first sub-1,000 week of the year and the lowest weekly reading of 2026, with the last four weeks the four slowest of the year. Redfin's August data ranked Dallas the No. 8 strongest buyer's market nationally, with about 108 percent more sellers than buyers, a record gap, and Fort Worth at roughly 87 percent more sellers than buyers, up from 67 percent a year earlier.

Mortgage rates: three weeks of relief

Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey averaged 7.18 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the week ending November 5, 2026, down from 7.24 percent the week before, the third consecutive weekly decline, a turn Freddie Mac's own release headlined 'Mortgage Rates Decline for Third Consecutive Week to 7.18 Percent.' The 15-year fixed-rate loan averaged 6.57 percent. A year earlier the same survey averaged 6.22 percent for the 30-year and 5.50 percent for the 15-year, so today's borrower is still financing roughly 96 basis points more than this time last November. The Texas Real Estate Research Center's October Housing Insight, published October 23, described rates above 7 percent as still challenging buyers and sellers, and the NAHB's October builder confidence reading fell 3 points to 29, the lowest since June 2012, with 43 percent of builders reporting price cuts. The relief is welcome; it is not yet a pivot.

Builders are still setting the terms

New construction keeps setting the competitive bar in both metros. Roughly 70 percent of DFW new-home sales include rate buydowns or structured incentives that effectively put buyers near 5.5 percent, with incentive packages commonly running $20,000 to $25,000 and some exceeding $40,000, and D.R. Horton has said it expects incentives to stay elevated through its fiscal 2026. Houston builders including D.R. Horton, KB Home, Lennar, and Perry Homes are competing the same way, buying down effective rates by 0.5 to 1.5 points; industry data for October shows roughly 65 percent of U.S. homebuilders offering incentives. For resale sellers, the competitor across the street is a builder who can buy down a buyer's rate out of its own margin.

What this means for buyers and sellers

For buyers, this remains a strong window, and the holiday season tends to be the quietest, most negotiable stretch of the year. Houston has near-record supply with a median flat from a year ago, DFW's official data is off about 1 percent with pending sales at a 2026 low, and sellers in both metros are offering concessions at near-record rates. Ask for closing-cost help, ask about rate buydowns, and budget around a 7.2 percent rate being today's reality rather than a reason to wait. For sellers, the market rewards honest pricing more than ever. Houston's median is flat, DFW's is down about 1 percent on the NTREIS data, and with showings quieter into the holidays, a defensible list price, sharp presentation, and a willingness to talk terms beat a price cut later.

The bottom line

Neither market is breaking; both are settling deeper into a buyer-favoring balance, and the notable shift this month is rates moving lower for a third straight week. Houston has near-record supply and steady prices, DFW is a touch softer on the official numbers and quiet on the ground, and builders remain the toughest competition most sellers will face. If you want to know what these numbers mean for your specific address, Sharcom Realty Group works Houston, Katy, and DFW every day. We will pull the current comparable sales for your neighborhood and give you a straight answer, no charge and no pressure.

Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending November 5, 2026, and week ending November 5, 2025; Houston Association of Realtors, September 2026 Monthly Housing Update, released October 14, 2026; NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report for September 2026, prepared by the Texas Real Estate Research Center, dated October 7, 2026; Redfin, buyer's market rankings and seller concessions data, August 2026, released September 2026; Texas Real Estate Research Center, Texas Housing Insight, October 2026 edition, published October 23, 2026; NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, October 2026, released October 19, 2026; Yang Tan Realty, DFW pending sales analysis, November 3, 2026; HousingWire, Dallas-Fort Worth new-home incentives, 2026; industry data on U.S. homebuilder incentives, October 2026.