Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth Market Update: October 2026

It is the first week of October, and the story in Texas has shifted from how fast homes sell to how much room buyers have to negotiate. Mortgage rates just pushed back above 7 percent, Houston is holding steady with the most listings in years, and Dallas-Fort Worth's median price is actually creeping higher even as homes sit longer. Here is the October 2026 update for both markets, with every figure dated and its source named so you can check my work.

Houston: more choices, steadier prices

The Houston Association of Realtors' most recent monthly report covers August sales and was released September 9. It put the median single-family sale price at $330,000, down 1.5 percent from $335,000 a year earlier, while the average sale price ran $426,760, up 1.2 percent year over year. Active listings stood at 38,947 single-family homes, up 0.5 percent, and months of inventory held at 5.3. Homes took a median 54 days to sell, up from 52 days in August 2025, and single-family closings came in at 7,100, down 11.5 percent year over year. HAR Chair Theresa Hill with Compass described the market as 'more balanced.' The Texas Real Estate Research Center's September edition, released September 18 and covering July data, noted Houston posted its first month in twelve without a year-over-year price decline, a small sign the slide is leveling off. Redfin's tracker, current through August, showed a median sale price of $350,000 over the trailing three months, down 2.8 percent year over year, with homes drawing a median of about 45 days on market.

DFW: prices firm, pace slower

The Dunnican Team's DFW Metroplex Housing Market Update, published September 18 on NTREIS MLS data through August closings, put the metro median sale price at $389,000, up 0.7 percent year over year, with months of supply at a balanced 4.4. Active listings came in at 34,191, down 5.7 percent year over year, closed sales of 7,750 were down 5.5 percent, and price per square foot ran about 2.0 percent below a year earlier. Luxe Realty Group's September 17 report pegged the metro median near $410,000, roughly flat to slightly down from a year ago, with homes taking 60 or more days to sell and inventory among the largest active-listing increases of any major U.S. metro. The two sources measure differently, but they agree on the direction: DFW prices are holding near their highs while the pace of the market has slowed enough to give buyers real negotiating room.

Mortgage rates: back above 7 percent

Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey averaged 7.28 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the week ending October 1, 2026, up from 7.03 percent the prior week and 6.95 percent the week before that. A year earlier the same survey averaged 6.34 percent, so today's borrower is financing roughly 94 basis points higher than this time last October. Rates spent most of the summer in the high 6 percent range, then climbed steadily through September, and that pressure is a big part of why both markets feel slower.

Builders are setting the terms

New construction continues to shape both markets. Houston builders are leaning on rate buydowns, closing-cost credits and design-center allowances instead of list-price cuts, per Crimson Realty's October 2026 update, which helps explain why the median holds even as inventory swells. In DFW, builders are leading with incentives too: HousingWire reported earlier in 2026 that roughly 70 percent of new-home sales in the region carried rate buydowns or other incentives, and Scribner DFW noted on September 25 that new construction is surging and undercutting existing-home sellers on price. For resale sellers, that means competing against builders who can buy down a buyer's rate out of their own margin.

What this means for buyers and sellers

For buyers, October is a good month to be looking: more choices, longer marketing times, and sellers who will talk terms. Ask for closing-cost help, ask about rate buydowns, and remember that a 7 percent rate is today's reality, not a reason to wait. For sellers, the market rewards honest pricing. Houston's median is off about 1.5 percent from a year ago, DFW is roughly flat or slightly up depending on the source, and the homes moving first are priced against today's comparable sales, not last year's. A defensible list price, sharp staging, and a willingness to negotiate beat a price cut later.

The bottom line

Neither market is breaking; both are simply settling into a more balanced rhythm after an extraordinary run. Houston has record supply and steady prices, DFW is holding value while slowing down, and builders are playing a bigger role than they have in years. If you want to know what these numbers mean for your specific address, Sharcom Realty Group works Houston, Katy and DFW every day. We will pull the current comparable sales for your neighborhood and give you a straight answer, no charge and no pressure.

Sources: Houston Association of Realtors, August 2026 Monthly Housing Update, released September 9, 2026; Texas Real Estate Research Center, Texas Housing Insight, September 2026 edition, released September 18, 2026, covering July 2026 data; Redfin, Houston housing market data, current through August 2026; The Dunnican Team, DFW Metroplex Housing Market Update, published September 18, 2026, NTREIS data through August 2026 closings; Luxe Realty Group, Dallas-Fort Worth Real Estate Market Report, September 17, 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 1, 2026; Crimson Realty, Houston builder incentive update, October 2026; HousingWire, DFW housing report, February 2026; Scribner DFW, DFW housing market report, September 25, 2026.